Philadelphia at BOSTON (-5 ½ and 170)
5:05 pm Pacific
The home team has historically had an advantage in game 7, especially after losing game 6, as home favorites of more than 3 points are 28-15-2 ATS in game 7 since 1991, including 17-4 ATS if coming off a loss and facing a team with a win percentage of .650 or less. Boston also applies to a 74-30-2 ATS home bounce-back situation that is 3-0 ATS in this series (it applied to Philly in game 4, Boston in game 5, and Philly in game 6). While the situation certainly favors Boston I’m concerned about the absence of Celtics’ guard Avery Bradley, who proved to be an important player. Boston started playing better when Bradley started getting more minutes (in part because Keyon Dooling was getting fewer minutes and Dooling is horrible) and my analysis of the Celtics plus-minus numbers with and without Bradley is revealing.
The keys players for the Celtics are Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, and Bradley. When all 3 were on the court at the same time the Celtics outscored their opponents by 16.1 points per 48 minutes, including a +20.0 rating in the playoffs (+68 points in 163.55 minutes). However, when Garnett and Rondo are on the floor without Bradley the Celtics are +8.4 points per 48 minutes. When Garnett is on the floor without Rondo but with Bradley the Celtics are +5.3 points but they’re just +1.5 points per 48 minutes with Garnett but without both Rondo and Bradley. Where the Celtics are horrible is when Rondo is on the floor by himself without Garnett and Bradley, as they’ve been out-scored by 103 points in 671.4 minutes this season, which is -7.4 points per 48 minutes. Boston was +1.9 points per 48 minutes with Rondo and with Bradley but without Garnett, so not having Bradley on the floor when Garnett is resting makes a huge difference (from -7.4 to +1.9). Overall, the Celtics are +8.5 points per 48 minutes this season when Garnett is on the floor, but just +7.3 points with Garnett but without Bradley. Boston is +4.8 points with Rondo on the floor, but just +2.2 points with Rondo but without Bradley. So, not having Bradley makes a significant difference and that has not been priced into the line, as Boston is once again a 5 ½ point favorite at home. I would favor the Celtics by 3 ½ points without Bradley in a neutral situation but the situation favoring Boston is worth about 2 points, so a line of 5 ½ points is actually fair given the situation favoring the Celtics. Thus, I have no sports betting advice on the side in this game.
My basketball analysis predicted the total in this game to be 169 ½ total points, which takes into account the slower than expected pace of game 7. So, I have no opinion on the total.
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