"I've got a 100-sided, evenly weighted die, which I am going to roll. If it comes up 1 through 57 you win, if it comes 58 through 100 I win. We're playing for even money. How much do you want to bet?"
How would you respond? Obviously you accept, but you are uncertain as to exactly how much you should wager - you are a solid favorite, but not an overwhelming one. The answer to this question is much deeper and more important to an investor's bottom line than the average sports bettor ever realizes.
Now let's say that the bored millionaire had one constraint. He tells you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn't re-load. Also, every roll of the dice costs $100, or essentially 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still come away with a profit?
You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long haul, you will win about 57% - it's a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are not guaranteed a thing. You'll have ups and downs that not even the most sophisticated football analysis computers in the world could predict. On your first twenty rolls you could easily go 2-18! If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you'd be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.
Yet,if you think about it, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet every day! Nearly every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. It's insanity, to me, to think that someone would risk half of their "stack" (to borrow a term from poker) on one game of Football. But that's exactly what the house banks on...
THE HOUSE WINS BECAUSE YOU BET TOO MUCH PER GAME.
The average sports better runs out of money before they have a chance to let the odds work for them. They bank on you not knowing this simple rule. It's the main reason why they win time and time again.
It is very tempting to put down a lot on each game, especially when you are winning. Most betters do it for the added excitement it gives you when you watch the event. I'm telling you though, if you want to win money, the only way to do this is to BET BORING. Everyone goes through good and bad streaks in sports handicapping. No one can win EVERY bet. Do yourself a favor though and allow yourself to "stay in the game." Don't miss out on that late-season run of luck because you dropped you whole roll on a "lock" that busted!
To me, knowing that I control the biggest impediment to my winning is empowering! Regardless of whether or not you follow my other sports betting advice, this is the single biggest thing you can do to prevent yourself from going broke. Be disciplined. Bet boring. And win more money.
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