There’s a difference between a bet that loses and a bad bet and this week I had 3 Best Bets that lost that were no doubt good bets. There are weeks when I lose because I happened to be on the wrong side of some games but this week I was on the right side of 6 of my 7 Best Bets and went 3-4 on those Best Bets thanks to random bad luck. In the tough world of sport betting advice, the only thing you can do is chalk this up to variance.
The bad fortune started on Friday night as my Best Bet on Central Florida +3 lost by 7 despite UCF out-gaining BYU 400 yards at 6.3 yards per play to 260 yards at 5.4 yppl. You can lose games when your team dominates when you lose 2 fumbles and the other team loses none, which happened in this game, and when the other team returns a kick for a touchdown. Fumbles are 90% random, so being -2 in fumbles lost is just bad luck and there is no doubt that UCF was the right side in that game and should have won easily as the underdog if not for the random miscues. On Saturday Ohio, a 4 ½ point underdog, averaged 7.1 yppl while Rutgers averaged just 5.3 yppl but the Bobcats fumbled 4 balls away (just 1 lost fumble for Rutgers) and didn’t cover despite dominating from the line of scrimmage by 1.8 yppl. Despite those two undeserved losses I still had a chance at a winning record for the week with my late game on Utah State but the Aggies managed to lose despite out-gaining Colorado State 5.5 yppl to 3.1 yppl. The reason, as you may have guessed, was 4 fumbles lost by Utah State and just 1 turnover by Colorado State. A difference of 2.4 yppl would normally result in a 13 or 14 point win, so it was certainly no guarantee that the Aggies would have covered at -9 ½ without the -3 in fumbles, but it is certainly at least 60% likely that they would have covered had it not been for the randomness of fumbles working against them. This is what can sometimes make sports analysis frustrating.
So, there were 3 games that I had the right side on and lost and the randomness of fumbles was the difference between a great 6-1 day a losing 3-4 day on my Best Bets. Overall, I was a ridiculous -11 in fumble margin on my 7 Best Bets, worth about 44 points (a turnover is worth about 4 points), and my teams still were a combined +11 in point spread differential. I’m not making excuses for losing, as I readily admit when I lose a game in which I had the wrong side in, but fumbles are a reason for losses that in the case of the 3 games mentioned above were undeserved losses in which I certainly had the right side. That’s why there is no such thing as a lock and I will win considerably more games than I lose over the long run when turnovers tend to even out.
In other Best Bets, SMU -21 ½ dominated Memphis 42-0 while out-gaining the Tigers 522 yards at 7.2 yppl to 139 yards at 3.4 yppl and covering easily despite being -3 in turnover margin. Illinois -12 ½ only won by 3 points although they played pretty close to expected with 463 yards at 5.9 yppl while allowing 341 yards at 4.9 yppl but being -1 in turnovers hurt their chances of covering – although I don’t consider that an unlucky loss. Georgia -9 won 27-13 over Ole Miss but the Bulldogs dominated by more than that score, as they out-gained the Rebels 475 yards at 5.8 yppl to 183 yards 3.3 yppl. That game was closer than it should have been because Ole Miss returned a punt for a touchdown and Georgia missed 3 field goals, but at least Georgia covered despite their special teams meltdowns. My Best Bet on Bowling Green +4 ½ was an easy winner, as the Falcons won 37-23 while out-gaining Miami-Ohio 310 yards at 5.0 yppl to 308 yards at just 3.8 yppl. Overall, a very good day of handicapping with my Best Bets being the right side in 6 of 7 games, but good handicapping doesn’t always lead to good result when the randomness of fumbles is -11 against you. I’ll have a great year if I keep betting games like the 7 Best Bets I played this weekend, as it’s highly unlikely that turnovers will be against me in the future like they were this weekend.
I was a frustrating 3-4 on my week 4 Best Bets and 7-11 on a Star Basis and just 1-3 on my Strong Opinions. For the season my Best Bets are 6-7 on 14-19 on a Star Basis and my Strong Opinions are 12-13. Thanks to my bad fortune on turnovers in week 4 I am now down 6.9 Stars at -1.10 odds (instead of being 22-11 on Best Bets and +9.9 Stars had I won the 3 Best Bets I lost due to fumbles) but I'm going to have about 100 Best Bets over the course of the season and I'm going to have a great season if I keep picking games like I picked last weekend. That's pretty likely given my 57% lifetime record on my College Best Bets
Of course for all of your college football analysis needs, you can always visit DrBobSports.com
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