Mike O’Connor’s Week 12 NFL Best Bets were 4-1 in week 12 for +7.7 Stars of profit. The week started with a Thursday night 2-Star win on Atlanta +7 ½ over New Orleans. The Falcons held the lead most of the game and lost 13-17 despite being -1 in turnovers. The Falcons were only outgained by 19 total yards, so that’s a solid play getting 7 ½ points. The Sunday plays were 3-1 with 3-Star wins on San Diego +4 ½, Miami +4 ½, and Arizona -3 and a 3-Star loss on Cleveland -2.
San Diego outgained the Chiefs 491 yards at 7.3 yppl to 395 yards at 6.7 yppl for a solid underdog straight up winner.
Miami +4 ½ lost 20-24 when Carolina scored in the final minute. However, the spread decision was never really in doubt and Miami outgained Carolina 332 yards at 5.4 yppl to 295 yards at 4.3 yppl and were certainly the right side.
Cleveland (-2) lost 11-27 but the Browns weren't actually that bad of a bet considering they outgained Pittsburgh 367 yard at 5.4 yppl while holding the Steelers to 302 yards at 4.4 yppl. A -4 in turnovers made it impossible for the Browns to compete on the scoreboard but this will go down as a deserved loss.
Arizona (-3) was an easy 40-11 winner over the Colts and dominated the stats 410 yards at 5.8 yppl to 239 yard at 4.3 yppl.
For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 26-25-3 and -8.9 Stars but as I chronicled last week his level of handicapping has actually been as good as his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (314-227-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.
I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 26-25-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.
I have 27 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 22-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 16 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-14-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.
The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 11 games above .500 yet he’s only 1 game above .500. If he won the 27 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 16 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 31-20-3 rather than 26-25-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 60.1% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season.
I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make last week, and again this week, is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 51% record.
The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.
I'm not making excuses for Mike's 51% record so far this season but rather just stating the facts that his handicapping has been as good as it always has been. If Mike continues to handicap at the level he has this season, and over his 8 year career as a public handicapper then he will win going forward just as he's won in the past.
Regardless of whether you think there has been bad luck or not, Mike O’Connor is certainly still likely to win going forward given his 58% career win percentage in 8 years as a public handicapper, so don’t give up on him just because he hasn’t won so far this season. A few weeks ago I was at 24-24-1 on my College Football Best Bets and now I’m comfortably profitable after winning 14 of my last 19 Best Bets. There is no reason Mike can’t do the same thing and his 4-1 record in week 12 is a good start.
