[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 15 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 15 NFL Best Bets were 2-2 for -0.5 Stars of profit, which ended a 3 week winning streak. However, Mike's Best Bets are still 11-5-1 the last 4 weeks for +14.5 Stars after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The 2-Star Best Bet on the New York Giants +7 lost 0-23 as Eli Manning threw 5 interceptions (4 really since one of them was a hail mary at the end of the half). New York's defense did a good job holding Seattle to 4.9 yards per play but the offense was horrendous.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Buffalo -2 was a 27-20 winner but this game could have gone either way as the Bills gained 368 yards at 5.3 yards per play while Jacksonville had 354 yards at 4.9 yppl. Buffalo was the better team but the +2 in turnovers helped and I'll put this game in a toss-up win category, which have been rare this season.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +1.5 looked good for most of the game before the Bears' offense got going in the second half and the Browns lost 31-38. Ultimately, the Bears proved to be the better team and compiled 441 yards at 7.1 yppl to Cleveland's 366 yards at 6.5 yppl.

The 2-Star Best Bet on the Jets +10 1/2 looked pretty solid most of the game with the Jets down 13-16 and with the ball late in 3rd quarter. However, Carolina blocked a punt that set them up at the 14 yard line and that short field was converted into a touchdown for a 10 point lead (but NYJ was still covering). A few plays later Carolina had an interception return for a touchdown and it looked like a solid play was going to be put in the bad luck loss category. However, New York drove the ball down the field for the covering score in a 20-30 loss. New York gained 297 yards at 5.0 yppl while Carolina had 394 yards at 6.6 yppl. However, 72 yards came on one short pass that turned into a long TD and Carolina had trouble moving the ball otherwise. This one is tough to grade but the margin probably would have been 6 or 7 points without the randomness of the blocked punt and if Carolina kicked a field goal rather than being stopped on 4th and goal earlier in the game. If you watched the game then you know this game was competitive throughout. But, I don't want to appear at all biased in my grading so I'm going to put this one in the toss-up win category even though I do feel it was a solid play.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 33-29-3 and -2.1 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (321-231-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

Week 16 NFL Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 14 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 14 NFL Best Bets were 3-2 for +2.3 Stars of profit and he’s now 9-3-1 the last 3 weeks for +15.0 Stars after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The week started on Thursday with a loss of 2.4 Stars on Houston -3 at -120, who lost 20-27 at Jacksonville. Houston actually outgained Jacksonville 406 yards at 5.1 yards per play (5.4 yppl before that final play sack for -18 yards) to 281 yards at 4.9 yppl but were hurt by a -2 turnover margin. It certainly wasn't a bad play but Houston has been finding ways to lose all season so I'll count it as a deserved loss despite the yardage edge.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati -6 over Indianapolis was an easy 42-28 winner (up by 21 before Indy scored late) and the Bengals won the stats too with 433 yards at 6.5 yppl to 350 yards at 6.5 yppl (72 yards on the final drive against a soft prevent defense).

The 3-Star Best Bet on Washington +3 lost 10-45 to Kansas City.

The 2-Star Best Bet on Cleveland +10 over New England was an easy winner as the Browns led most of the game before giving up 13 points in the final minute on a Patriots' touchdown, onside kick recovering and touchdown. Cleveland outgained the Patriots too in a very good bet that was never in doubt.

The winning week was secured with the Monday night 3-Star Best Bet on Chicago -1 over Dallas, an easy 45-28 winner. The Bears did not have to punt once, as they scored on every possession in a dominating performance.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 31-27-3 and -1.6 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (319-229-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 31-27-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 32 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 27-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 18 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-16-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 14 games above .500 yet he’s only 4 game above .500. If he won the 32 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 18 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 36-22-3 rather than 31-27-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 61.5% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make a few weeks ago is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 53% record. And, since I gave that message Mike has been 9-3-1 on his Best Bets the last three weeks with no lucky or unlucky results.

Week 15 NFL Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 13 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s week 13 NFL Best Bets were 2-0 for +5.0 Stars of profit and he’s now 6-1-1 the last two weeks after suffering through some bad luck earlier in the season.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Denver -5 ½ started slowly with the Broncos down 7-21 but Denver came back with 28 unanswered points to take a 14 point lead before Kansas City scored a late touchdown for a 35-28 final score. Denver outgained Kansas City 538 yards at 8.5 yards per play to 452 yards at 6.7 yppl and covered the spread despite having a kick off returned for a touchdown by the Chiefs and being -1 in turnovers.

The 2-Star Best Bet on Cincinnati -1 won 17-10. The Bengals outgained the Chargers 356 yards at 6.0 yppl to 324 yards at 5.1 yppl, so they were certainly the better team. Cincy was +1 in turnovers but they also took two knees with 1^st and goal from the San Diego 3 yard line at the end of the game so they could have won by more than 7 points if they needed to. That was a pretty solid play.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 28-25-3 and -3.9 Stars but as I’ve pointed out his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (316-227-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 28-25-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 29 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 24-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 16 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-14-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 13 games above .500 yet he’s only 3 game above .500. If he won the 29 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 16 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 33-20-3 rather than 28-25-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 61.6% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make a couple of weeks ago is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 53% record. And, since I gave that message Mike has been 6-1-1 on his Best Bets the last two weeks with no unlucky results.

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.

Check back on Thursday for a Week 14 Update

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 12 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s Week 12 NFL Best Bets were 4-1 in week 12 for +7.7 Stars of profit. The week started with a Thursday night 2-Star win on Atlanta +7 ½ over New Orleans. The Falcons held the lead most of the game and lost 13-17 despite being -1 in turnovers. The Falcons were only outgained by 19 total yards, so that’s a solid play getting 7 ½ points. The Sunday plays were 3-1 with 3-Star wins on San Diego +4 ½, Miami +4 ½, and Arizona -3 and a 3-Star loss on Cleveland -2.

San Diego outgained the Chiefs 491 yards at 7.3 yppl to 395 yards at 6.7 yppl for a solid underdog straight up winner.

Miami +4 ½ lost 20-24 when Carolina scored in the final minute. However, the spread decision was never really in doubt and Miami outgained Carolina 332 yards at 5.4 yppl to 295 yards at 4.3 yppl and were certainly the right side.

Cleveland (-2) lost 11-27 but the Browns weren't actually that bad of a bet considering they outgained Pittsburgh 367 yard at 5.4 yppl while holding the Steelers to 302 yards at 4.4 yppl. A -4 in turnovers made it impossible for the Browns to compete on the scoreboard but this will go down as a deserved loss.

Arizona (-3) was an easy 40-11 winner over the Colts and dominated the stats 410 yards at 5.8 yppl to 239 yard at 4.3 yppl.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 26-25-3 and -8.9 Stars but as I chronicled last week his level of handicapping has actually been as good as his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (314-227-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 26-25-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 27 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s 22-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 16 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-14-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 11 games above .500 yet he’s only 1 game above .500. If he won the 27 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 16 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 31-20-3 rather than 26-25-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 60.1% this year, which is actually better than his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season. 

I know you're not getting paid on what Mike's record should be but rather on what his record is, but the point I tried to make last week, and again this week, is that you should not lose faith in Mike's methods given how good they've been for 8 years and how solid his handicapping has actually been this year despite his 51% record.

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.

I'm not making excuses for Mike's 51% record so far this season but rather just stating the facts that his handicapping has been as good as it always has been. If Mike continues to handicap at the level he has this season, and over his 8 year career as a public handicapper then he will win going forward just as he's won in the past.

Regardless of whether you think there has been bad luck or not, Mike O’Connor is certainly still likely to win going forward given his 58% career win percentage in 8 years as a public handicapper, so don’t give up on him just because he hasn’t won so far this season. A few weeks ago I was at 24-24-1 on my College Football Best Bets and now I’m comfortably profitable after winning 14 of my last 19 Best Bets. There is no reason Mike can’t do the same thing and his 4-1 record in week 12 is a good start.

Check back on Wednesday for Thursday's NFL Best Bets

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 11 and Season Recap

Week 11 and Season Recap

Mike O’Connor’s had horrible results on his 8 NFL Best Bets for week 11, as they went just 1-4-3 for -8.0 Stars. But, as has been the case all season, his handicapping was better than his record.

The week started with a Thursday night push with 2-Stars on Tennessee +3 at -120 odds. The Titans actually outplayed the Colts 6.3 yards per play to 5.6 yppl (not including kneel downs) but lost a possession when they fumbled a kickoff that resulted in a quick touchdown for the Colts right after Indy had scored to pull within 4. So a 17-6 lead turned quickly twisted into a 17-20 deficit. Tennessee scored late in the 4^th to gain the push but this was a pretty solid play given that Tennessee averaged more yards per play and pushed the spread despite a negative turnover differential. But, despite the advantage in yards per play I’ll log it as a tossup game.

The Sunday plays were a disaster aside from the 3-Star win on Denver, as the Jets (3-Stars) turned a -4 turnover differential into a 14-37 loss despite being outplayed just 4.8 yppl to 4.9 yppl. The Jets rookie quarterback is turnover prone and even though -4 in turnovers is impossible to predict this game was certainly a deserved loss despite the even stats.

The Baltimore at Chicago game featured a 3-Star Best Bet on the Bears -3 and a 2-Star Under 41 points and it looked like the side would push and the total would win when it was 20-17 Bears in the final minute. But, an incredible one-handed catch on 4^th down kept the Raven’s last drive going and they kicked a field goal with 3 seconds left to force overtime. The Bears ended up winning by 3, so we got the push on the side but the total went from a win to a loss. Chicago was a solid play here given that the Bears averaged 5.7 yppl to Baltimore’s 4.2 yppl and the total certainly was a toss-up game that lost, so it was bad luck to go 0-1-1 on those two plays.

The 2-Star on the Cincinnati-Cleveland Under 40 ½ points was doomed by 3 non-offensive touchdowns and those 21 points was the difference as the offenses scored 40 total points. The two teams combined for only 555 total yards and 4.1 yards per play (despite 74 yards coming on one play), which would normally result in about 34 total points, so this actually was not a bad play at all and would have likely gone under without all the random non-offensive touchdowns.

The 3-Star on San Francisco +3 at even money was actually lucky to push, as the Niners were outplayed 3.5 yppl to 5.8 yppl. It actually looked like we might get a rare lucky when San Francisco had the lead and forced a fumble in the 4^thquarter but the play was ruled an illegal hit, which was certainly a questionable call after watching the replay (looked like he hit the shoulder pad and not the neck), and the Saints scored on that drive to tie the game. That would have been a lucky win but this one will go down in the ledger as a lucky push, which makes up for Chicago dominating Baltimore 5.7 yppl to 4.2 yppl and getting a push in that game. I heard from a number of clients that said they got +3 ½ and won that game and +3 ½ was certainly available, but it was released at +3 at even money and will officially be graded as a push.

The 3-Star Best Bet on Green Bay +6 wasn’t a bad bet either given that the Packers outgained the Giants 394 yards at 7.3 yppl to 334 yards at 5.3 yppl. Normally, a 6 point dog with those stat would not only cover but win the game by more than a touchdown straight up. However, Green Bay was -2 in turnovers and one of those was returned for a touchdown to turn a 7 point deficit into a 13-27 loss. I not going to call that an unlucky loss even though the Packers outplayed the Giants but it’s certainly a toss-up game that lost.

The Sunday night 3-Star on Denver was a pretty comfortable win, as the Broncos led 27-10 before giving up a touchdown with 5 minutes left in a 27-17 win. Denver outgained Kansas City 427 yards at 5.6 yppl to 344 yards at 4.7 yppl, although they really only averaged 4.4 yppl when you take out the 25 yard run at the end of the first half when Denver had most of their defenders sitting on the goal line waiting for the hail Mary pass. The stats project an 11.4 points win so Denver was a solid play.

The final tally was 1-4-3 but only 2 of those 8 Best Bets were actually bad bets (the Jets and SF). I wouldn’t say Mike did a great job of handicapping in week 11 but he once again had a worse record than he deserved, as losing both totals was certainly undeserved and the Green Bay loss wasn’t a bad bet either. As you probably know by now I keep a spreadsheet of every play and grade the games based on deserved wins/losses, underserved win/losses (i.e. lucky wins and unlucky losses) and toss up games. This week I put Denver in as a deserved win and the Jets as a deserved loss with SF as a lucky push. The other 5 games were all toss-up games and he was 0-3-2 on those 5 toss up games. So, a 1 game under .500 level of handicapping turned into a 3 games under .500 record for the week, which is simply the way Mike’s season has gone this year.

Week 12 Best Bets available on Thursday.

For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 22-24-3 and -16.6 Stars but as I chronicled a couple of weeks ago his level of handicapping has actually been as good as his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (310-226-16). Mike's performance this season cannot be judged on his record, which is actually pretty good considering how unlucky he's been this year as an average handicapper would be at 40% with the kind of luck Mike has endured.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 22-24-3 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 23 of Mike’s games graded as being on the right side and he’s just 18-5 on those games, which is 5 unlucky losses. I have 15 of Mike’s games graded as being on the wrong side and he’s 1-13-1 on those games, so he’s had just 1 lucky win and a lucky push. I have 11 of Mike’s games graded as toss up games that could have gone either way and he’s just 3-6-2 on those games rather than the 50% that he should be. The complete list of lucky wins and losses and toss up wins and losses is listed below if you want to verify my grading.

The net of it is Mike’s handicapping has graded out at 8 games above .500 yet he’s 2 games below .500. If he won the 23 games that he was on the right side of, lost the 15 games he was on the wrong side of and split the 11 toss-up games then he’s be 27-19-3 rather than 22-24-3. I grade Mike’s handicapping at 58.2% this year, which is at his long term average, but he’s simply had horrible luck this season.

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.

I'm not making excuses for Mike's 48% record so far this season but rather just stating the facts that his handicapping has been as good as it always has been. If Mike continues to handicap at the level he has this season, and over his 8 year career as a public handicapper then he will win going forward just as he's won in the past.

Regardless of whether you think there has been bad luck or not, Mike O’Connor is certainly still likely to win going forward given his 58% career win percentage in 8 years as a public handicapper, so don’t give up on him just because he hasn’t won so far this season. A few weeks ago I was at 24-24-1 on my College Football Best Bets and now I’m comfortably profitable after winning 11 of my last 14 Best Bets. There is no reason Mike can’t do the same thing.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 10 and Season Recap

Week 10 and Season Recap
Last week Mike made 7 good bets and only went 4-3 because of ridiculous bad luck but week 10 was a deserved 2-2 split for a loss of 2.0 Stars. As usual Mike's two wins were easy, as a 3-Star Best Bet on Jacksonville (+13) won straight up and a 3-Star Best Bet on St. Louis (+10 -115) won 38-8. 

Mike's 2-Star on Buffalo (+3 at -120) was a clear loser and the 4-Star on San Francisco (-6) took a turn for the worse when the Niners couldn't add to their 9-0 lead after star TE Vernon Davis left the game with an injury and the Niners eventually lost 9-10 to the Panthers. Overall just a down week at 2-2 and -2.0 Stars. For the season Mike O'Connor's NFL Best Bets are now 21-20 and -8.6 Stars but as I chronicled last week his level of handicapping has actually been as good or better than his 58% Best Bet percentage over his 8 years as a public handicapper (309-222-13).

For the season Mike's NFL Best Bets are just 21-20 for -8.6 Stars but I'm very confident that he'll have a profitable record by the end of the season given how well he's actually handicapped this season and given his 309-222-13 (58.2%) record on NFL Best Bets in his career as a public handicapper (since 2006).

Week 11 Best Bets Now Available

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 10 NFL Best Bets and Week 9 and Season Recap

Week 10 NFL Best Bets now available including the first 4-Star of the season as well as two 3-Stars!

Week 9 and Season Recap

The number of tough losses that my NFL handicapper Mike O’Connor has taken this season is getting ridiculous. Mike had a winning week at 4-3 on his Best Bets, all 2-Star Best Bets, but he had the right side in the 3 losses while the wins were all undoubtedly easy wins.

Let’s begin with the wins. Mike had Minnesota +10 against Dallas and the Cowboys needed a late touchdown just to win the game 27-23 while the Vikings outgained Dallas 393 yards at 5.8 yards per play to 350 yards at 5.6 yppl but were -1 in turnovers. Easy win. No doubt the right side.

The Jets (+6) beat the Saints straight up 26-20 while gaining 340 yards at 6.1 yppl to the Saints 408 yards at 6.3 yppl. New York was +2 in turnovers (both Saints interceptions) but New Orleans is likely to throw more picks when they throw 50 passes while the Jets needed to throw just 20 passes. The Jets were a solid play.

Philadelphia as a dog against the Raiders was obviously a great play, as the Eagles won 49-20. The Raiders got a lot of yards in garbage time to even out the total yards but yards per play is a better indication of a team’s success and Philly averaged 10.1 yppl (after taking out the kneel downs at the end of the game) while the Raiders averaged 6.1 ypp.

Tampa Bay as a huge dog led most of the game, and by as much as 21-0, before losing in overtime and were only outgained by 65 yards. Another great play.

Losses (none of which were bad bets):

The Thursday night loss on Cincinnati -3 was a game where the better team lost 20-22 in overtime as a direct result of turnovers, which are vastly unpredictable. The Bengals were -3 in turnovers as Andy Dalton, who averages less than 1 interception per game in his career, threw 3 picks. The first one set up a Dolphins field goal. The second one came after a long drive got the Bengals to the 10 yard line and that interception was returned 94 yards for a touchdown, a 10 point swing. The Bengals continued to dominate and fought back by scoring on their next two drives to tie the game at 17. On their next drive, in field goal range, Dalton threw his third interception. Cincy’s fumble and Miami’s fumble both led to no scoring but Cincinnati’s 3 interceptions cost them at least 13 points (the 10 point swing on the 94 yard return plus Miami’s FG after the first pick) and the Bengals lost on a safety in overtime despite amassing over 500 yards of total offense. Cincinnati was the right side in that game.

Mike’s second loss was on Buffalo (+3) and the Bills were a very good bet. Buffalo outgained Kansas City 470 yards at 6.1 yppl to 213 yards at 4.2 yppl but were -3 in turnovers. The Bills were so dominant in this game that they could have overcome the -3 in turnovers and covered anyway if not for two of those turnovers being returned for touchdowns. One was with the Bills up 10-3 and on the one yard line when Jeff Tuel threw a pass that was intercepted and returned 100 yards and the other was a fumble return for a touchdown. Buffalo was a great bet.

The third loss was tough to swallow too, as Houston +2 was dominating Indianapolis 21-3 at the half. Houston’s coach Gary Kubiak collapsed heading off the field at the half and was rushed off to the hospital. Normally losing a head coach wouldn’t be that big of a deal, but Kubiak is also the Texans’ play caller and the offense disappeared in the second half without him calling the plays. Houston still outgained the Colts 483 yards at 7.2 yppl to 314 yards at 5.4 yppl but the Texans missed 3 field goals and ultimately lost by 3 points as a 2 point dog. That was another good bet that would win most of the time.

Mike made 7 good bets in week 9 and only went 4-3. This season had been unlucky for Mike heading into this week with numerous close losses and two games he lost that he absolutely should have won (Houston over Seattle and Green Bay over Baltimore) and today added to what has been an incredibly unlucky season. Good bets do lose, as variance with turnovers and special teams is part of football, but that variance is supposed to go both ways and that has not been the case so far this season. I have to go all the way back to week 2 to find a game that Mike won that he really didn’t deserve to win.

I have always kept a ledger to grade my Best Bets honestly and over time my graded percentage is the same as my actual winning percentage because the luck tends to even out over a longer time period. However, there are seasons in which variance plays a role in making a handicapper's record considerably better than it should be or considerably worse. I’m not handicapping the NFL personally this season but I keep a log of Mike O’Connor’s NFL Best Bets and grade those games too. You probably already realize this if you’ve been paying attention, but Mike’s record should be much better than 19-18 given the bad luck he’s had this season, as his handicapping has been just as good as it’s been over his 8 years hitting 58% while his results this year have been heavily influenced by negative variance.

I have 6 categories for grading games. Most games are deserved wins or deserved losses, which are games that turn out the way that they should based on the stats. There are games that are considered toss up wins and toss up losses, which are games that could have gone either way based on the stats or how the game played out. Then there are undeserved wins and undeserved losses, in which the outcome was decided purely by variance. Undeserved wins are games that shouldn't have won but did and undeserved losses are games that should have won and didn't.

So far this season Mike has just 1 win that he didn't deserve and he has 5 clearly undeserved losses, where he had the right side based on the statistics. The toss-up games are split at 3-3. If Mike had won the 5 games he lost that he deserved to win and lost the 1 game he won that he deserved to lose then his record would be 23-14 for 62% winners. Even if you don’t agree with one of the games on my list he still deserves to be 22-15 for 59% winners, which is right at his lifetime percentage.

The lesson is to not judge a handicapper solely on his short term record, but rather on his long term record and the circumstances of his short term record should be taken into account, as short term results are subject to variance, both positive and negative, while the variance evens out over time. The season Mike is having reminds me a lot of my 2011 College season, in which I suffered a great deal of negative variance with fumbles (-19) and close games (won just 30%) and finished just 1 game above .500 rather than being 58%, which is what I graded myself at that year. The very next season I was 58.5% handicapping at the same level I did in 2011 but without the negative variance. Variance works both ways and there are years in which Mike or I have won at a higher rate than we handicapped at.

I'm not making excuses for Mike's 51% record so far this season but rather just stating the facts that his handicapping has been as good as it always has been. If Mike continues to handicap at the level he has this season, and over his 8 year career as a public handicapper then he will win going forward just as he's won in the past.

Here’s my list with some details on why each game is in the category I put them in.

Undeserved wins (1)

Week 2 Tampa Bay (+3) 14-16 over New Orleans : 273 yards at 4.9 yppl to 371 yards at 5.3 yppl and an 85 yard interception return for a touchdown. This could have gone in the toss up category since the yards per play was pretty close, but it was the closest game Mike has had to an undeserved win so I decided to call it such.

Undeserved Losses (5)

Week 4 Houston (+1 ½) 20-23 vs Seattle: Houston was up 20-3 at the half and 20-6 with under 8 minutes left in the game and still had a 7 point lead with less than 3 minutes when Matt Schaub threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown to tie the game. Houston lost in overtime despite gaining 475 yards and allowing Seattle just 274 yards of offense.

Week 5 Jacksonville (+11 ½) 20-34 vs St. Louis: Jacksonville, a huge underdog, outgained the Rams 363 yards at 6.2 yppl to 354 yards at 5.1 yppl but the Rams had an 82 yard interception return for a touchdown and later in the game the Jags took a made field goal off the board and then threw an interception from the 2 yard line. Overall, the Jags were -3 in turnovers and still nearly covered in a game they might have won straight up otherwise.

Week 6 Green Bay (-2 ½) 19-17 vs Baltimore: The Packers led this game 16-3 in the 4^th quarter despite losing 2 of their top 3 receivers to injuries early in the game, leaving Aaron Rodgers with just 2 healthy wide receivers for 3 ½ quarters. Green Bay still outgained Baltimore 440 yards at 7.0 yppl to 360 yards at 5.9 yppl and Baltimore’s spread covering touchdown with just over 2 minutes left in the game was possible because of a conversion on 4^th and 21 yards. Green Bay, up by 2, ended the game with 1^st and goal at the Baltimore 9 yard line and took two knees to end the game. Brutal loss.

Week 9 Buffalo (+3) 13-23 vs Kansas City: Buffalo outgained Kansas City 470 yards at 6.1 yppl to 213 yards at 4.2 yppl but were -3 in turnovers with two of those turnovers being returned for touchdowns (one for 100 yards). Buffalo was a great bet.

Week 9 Houston (+2) 24-27 vs Indianapolis: Houston led 21-3 at the half but lost their play caller, head coach Gary Kubiak, who collapsed heading off the field at the half. Houston still outgained the Colts 483 yards at 7.2 yppl to 314 yards at 5.4 yppl but the Texans missed 3 field goals and ultimately lost by 3 points as a 2 point dog. An underdog that dominates the yardage like that should win and the game and is clearly the right side. You could argue that this game belongs in the toss-up loss category but the week 2 Tampa Bay win that I put in the undeserved wins category could just as easily been put in the toss-up wins category since the yards per play was pretty close in that game.

Toss Up Wins (3)

Week 3 Miami (-2 ½) 27-23 over Atlanta: Turnovers were even and Miami had 5.3 yppl to 5.5 yppl for Atlanta.

Week 3 Kanas City (+3) 26-16 over Philadelphia: KC was outgained 395 yards at 5.3 yppl to 431 yards at 6.8 yppl but was +4 in turnovers (the 5^th turnover was on the final Philly play on a desperation lateral so that doesn’t really count). The turnovers led to 10 Kansas City points (a field goal after a -7 yard drive and an interception returned for a TD. This was not a lucky win since Michael Vick was expected to throw more interceptions that Alex Smith and the game would been even without the turnovers. Plus, teams that are -4 in turnovers average a spread loss of 14 points and KC covered by 13 points, which puts that in the toss-up category, as I think this game could have gone either way if Philly was -1 in turnovers rather than -4.

Week 6 Buffalo (+7) 24-27 (OT) vs Cincinnati: Buffalo fought back in the 4^th quarter to tie this game with a touchdown with 1:08 left and lost in overtime and while having a 7 point dog go to overtime would normally be considered a solid win, this one goes in the toss up category because Cincinnati out-played the Bills from the line of scrimmage 6.0 yppl to 4.8 yppl, which would normally lead to a win over around 7 points. Plus, Buffalo was down by 7 points and this game was looking like a push when they scored with 1 minute left in regulation. While this was a borderline call to put as a toss-up it was included because I included Oakland as a toss-up loss the same week based on their yardage stats.

Toss Up Losses (3)

Week 5 Tennessee (+2 ½) 17-26 vs Kansas City: The total yards were very even at 340 yards at 5.2 yppl for Tennessee and 353 yards at 5.3 yppl for Kansas City, but the Chiefs scored a touchdown on a fumble and had two 4^th quarter interceptions in the final minutes that resulted in made field goals despite not moving the ball on those drives. This game was directly affected by the turnovers and ultimately that touchdown on the fumble was the difference between covering and not.

Week 6 Oakland (+8 ½) 7-24 vs Kansas City: Oakland outgained Kansas City 274 yards at 3.9 yppl to 216 yards at 3.5 yppl but Raiders’ quarterback Terrell Pryor threw 3 interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown late in the game that made the look more lopsided that it actually was. Pryor has only thrown 4 totals interceptions in the other 7 games combined this season, so throwing 3 in one game is negative variance and this game was a 7 point game with the Raiders covering with 2 minutes left despite an earlier interception setting up the Chiefs at the Oakland 23 yard line. It’s a godo bet when an 8 ½ point dog outgains the favorite and is covering with couple minutes left despite being negative in turnovers.

Week 9 Cincinnati (-3) 20-22 vs Miami: This one could easily go in the undeserved losses category given Miami’s 94 yard interception return for a touchdown and Andy Dalton’s uncharacteristic (i.e. unlucky) 3 interceptions, but the stats, with the variance excluded, would project a single digit win for the Bengals so I’ll put this in the toss-up loss category instead even though they outgained Miami by 120 yards.

There have been 5 other games that have been within 7 points of the spread that weren’t really toss up games.

Week 2 Buffalo (+3) 24-23 over Carolina: 436 yards at 6.0 yppl to 308 yards at 4.1 yppl and won despite -1 in turnovers.

Week 3 Jets (-2 ½) 27-20 over Buffalo: Outgained the Bills 513 yard at 7.3 yppl to 328 yards at 4.4 yppl and won despite a -2 in turnovers.

Week 7 Jets (+4) 30-27 over New England: This game went to overtime when the Patriots scored late but the Jets were covering for all but 33 seconds of the 2^nd half and overtime and outgained the Pats 384 yards to 295 yards.

Week 8 Green Bay (-7) 44-31 over Minnesota: This game ended as a 6 point spread win but Green Bay led by 20 points with 1 ½ minutes left in the game despite Minnesota returning a kickoff for a touchdown. Not nearly as close as the final score makes it appear to be.

Week 9 Minnesota (+10) 23-27 vs Dallas: This game ended up being a 6 point cover but Minnesota was up by 3 point (covering by 13 points) until Dallas scored with 35 seconds left to win the game. Plus Minnesota outgained the Cowboys 393 yards at 5.8 yppl to 350 yards at 5.6 yppl and covered easily despite being -1 in turnovers. 

For the season Mike,s NFL Best Bets are just 19-18 for -6.6 Stars but I'm very confident that he'll have a profitable record by the end of the season given how well he's actually handicapped this season and given his 307-220-13 (58.3%) record on NFL Best Bets in his career as a public handicapper (since 2006). 

NFL Free Analysis

As most of you know, Dr Bob has posted informative and profitable NFL analysis in his Free Analysis section for years. This season I will post Free Analysis on NFL games that are not part of my Best Bet package.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 8 and Season Recap

Week 8 and Season Recap

I was 1-1 on my 2 Week 8 Best Bets for -1.9 Stars, although some of you may have missed the upgrade of the Sunday night game to a 2-Star Best Bet on Green Bay when the line dropped to -7 on Sunday after the early games had started. 

I emailed my subscribers at around 12:30 pm PST and updated the Free Analysis page to show the upgrade. That gave everyone 5 hours before game time to check their email or check the Free Analysis page but I know not everyone did that. 

It's rare for me to have an update past 9 am Pacific on Sunday and in the future I will try to anticipate any line moves that could trigger a Best Bet and let everyone know of that possibility ahead of time. I still thought it was best to send that Best Bet out once a play was triggered and I know most of my subscribers were able to get down on it while most of my weekly clients probably didn't think to check back after 10 am PST and only got the 3-Star loss on Atlanta (+3 at -130 odds).

If you paid for the one Best Bet with a weekly pass then I will email you my Week 9 Best Bets at no charge (just send an email on Thursday to bob@drbobsports.com and include your user name so I can look up the transaction from week 8).

For the season I am just 15-15 on my Best Bets for -8.0 Stars but I'm very confident that I'll have a profitable record by the end of the season given my 303-217-13 (58.3%) record on my NFL Best Bets in my career as a public handicapper (since 2006).

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 7 and Season Recap

Week 7 and Season Recap

It was great to finally have a week without a close loss and the result was a profitable 3-1 record on this week's Best Bets, all 3-Star Best Bets. 

I won with the New York Jets (+4), who beat the Patriots in overtime, with the Buffalo Bills, another straight up dog winner, and with Carolina (-6), who beat St. Louis by 15 points. My lone loss was on Philadelphia (-2.5 at -120 odds), who lost 3-17 to Dallas. Overall, a very good profit at +5.4 Stars.

This seson I am still only 14-14 on my Best Bets for -6.1 Stars but I feel my level of handicapping has certainly been better than that. The Jets' game was the first win I've had on a game decided by less than 7 points to the spread (in regulation) since week 3 and that can't be considered lucky at all given that New York was a 4 point dog that won the game and outgained the Patriots by 88 total yards. I’m 302-216-13 (58.3%) on my NFL Best Bets in my career as a public handicapper (since 2006) and I still expect to have a good season despite the slow start.

Week 8 Best Bets Available on Thursday

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 5 and Season Recap

Week 5 and Season Recap

I had a winning week in week 5, going 3-2 on my Best Bets. The Best Bets were 2-2 on Sunday with wins on the Colts (+3 at -115 for 3-Stars), who beat the Seahawks straight up 34-26, and on Philadelphia (+1.5 for 2-Stars), who whipped the Giants 36-21. 

My losses were both close games, as the Titans (+3 at -120 for 3-Stars) lost 17-26 thanks to a special teams TD by Kansas City, and Jacksonville +11.5 for 3-Stars) lost by 14 despite outgaining the Rams. It was a -3 in turnover margin that was our downfall in that game and that was a very good play given that anything outside of +1 or -1 in turnovers is random. It also didn't help that Jacksonville took a made field goal off the board and came away with no points when all we needed was a FG to cover (or push if you got +11). I added a 3-Star Best Bet on the Jets on Monday night and they won straight up as a 9 1/2 point dog at Atlanta. That game was also posted in the Free Analysis section.

For the season the NFL Best Bets are just 10-10 for -4.4 Stars but we've lost a couple of games the last couple of weeks where I've had the right side (most notably last week with Houston over Seattle) and have had the worst of it in the toss up games. Those things should even out in the long run and I'm sure I'll win a game I rightfully should lose and win a few games because of turnovers. I may be 10-10 but my level of handicapping has been on par with my long term 58% win rate over my 8 years as a public handicapper. Regardless, my long term record is certainly more indicative of my performance going forward than the 5 weeks this season and I expect to keep my record of never having a losing season intact. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 4 and Season Recap

Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Anaysis Available on Thursday

Week 4 and Season Recap

Even in the best of seasons there are going to be bad weeks and week 4 was just such a week as my Best Bets went 2-5 for -8.3 Stars. I started the week with a 3-Star win on San Francisco on Thursday night and ended it last night with a 2-Star win in New Orleans. But Sunday? Sunday was painful. I lost 3.3 Stars on Pittsburgh, 2.2 Stars on Houston (the most painful), 3.3 Stars on the Jets, 2.2 Stars on Philadelphia, and 2.3 Stars on Atlanta -2 1/2 at -115 odds.

Bad weeks are going to happen no matter how good my long term record is -- I've won all 7 seaons as a professional handicapper despite having equally bad weeks in each of the last 6 years. Last year I was 1-5 in week 11 but was 36-24 in all other weeks. In 2011 I was 1-4 in week 1 but was 39-21 in all other weeks. In 2010 I was 0-4 in week 1 but went 54-36 the rest of the season. In 2009 I was 1-4 in week 9 and 33-20 in all other weeks. In 2008 I was 1-5 combined in weeks 13 and 14 but was 45-24 in all other weeks and in 2007 I was 0-5 in week 7 but still had a winning season by going 35-25 in the other weeks. So yes, I had a bad week, but it's nothing unusual and nothing I'm worried about.

Usually the bad weeks are weeks in which I don't win any close games, lose a game or two that I should have won, and don't win any toss-up games. That was the case this week as my two wins were blowout wins with the Niners and Saints but I lost a game with Houston +1 1/2 that I was clearly on the right side of. 

Houston outgained Seattle by 202 yards but that game went to overtime, and eventually lost, because of a ridiculous interception return for a touchdown. Houston was a very good bet but very good bets don't always win due to variance and that was certainly the case in this game. Pittsburgh wasn't a bad bet either as the Steelers outgained Minnesota by 41 yards and were within the 10 yard line with a chance to tie the game late before turning the ball over. The -2 turnover margin made the difference in that game. 

Atlanta also had the ball inside the 10 with a chance to tie the Patriots late (and they outgained the Pats) but that would have been a lucky win had they cashed in and won in overtime. 

Only the Jets and Eagles were games that had no chance (although the Jets did have more total yards but were -4 in turnovers). I certainly didn't deserve a winning week but the 2-5 record was the worst possible record I could have had with those plays and I could have been 4-3 just as easily. I'm going to have a week or two when I have some lucky breaks go my way, as those things tend to even out.

I'm not too worried about one bad week, especially since I've always come out ahead at the end of the season. After all, 7-plus years of 58% winners is certainly more indicative of my future success than my 2-5 record this past week. For the season I am now 7-8 on my Best Bets for -5.6 Stars.

Check back on Thursday for my Week 5 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.

[NFL] Free Analysis: Week 3 and Season Recap

Week 3 Best Bets 3-1.  Week 4 Best Bets Available on Thursday

My week 3 Best Bets were 3-1 for +4.7 Stars. I started the week with a Thursday night 2-Star Best Bet win on Kansas City +3, who won at Philly 26-16. 

I was 2-1 on Sunday with an ugly 3-Star loss on the New York Giants and a pair of 3-Star wins on small favorites with Miami -2 1/2 coming back to beat Atlanta 27-23 and the Jets -2 1/2 winning 27-20 over Buffalo. 

The Miami Best Bet was added on Sunday morning and those that logged in when they purchased the Best Bets earlier in the week can log back in on Sunday to get the Sunday update. For the season I am now 5-3 on my Best Bets for +2.8 Stars. 

Check back on Thursday for my Week 4 NFL Best Bets and Free Analysis.